economy

Growth signals show inconsistency: Nomura

Growth signals show inconsistency: Nomura

The Nomura India business resumption index gained last week but the rise was not broad-based, said Nomura. The Nomura India business resumption index picked up to 105.7 for the week ending 31 October from 104.8 in the previous week, 5.7 percentage points above pre-pandemic levels. There was a whopping 13.3 pp rise in the Google workplace mobility index across the week, even as the retail & recreation index dropped by 0.4pp and the Apple driving index fell by 6.3pp. The labour participation rate fell to 39.9% from 40.7%, while power demand has declined for three consecutive weeks. “Growth signals are currently inconsistent. Despite improving business resumption, railway freight revenues, and manufacturing PMIs, GST E-way bills as of end-October are lower than August/September levels, said Nomura. Credit growth, railway passenger revenues and traffic congestion have also been tepid. Core infrastructure sector growth eased to 4.4% year-on-year in September from 11.5% in August, driven by coal, electricity and cement, indicative of late monsoons and the early impact of the energy crisis, setting the stage for lower industrial production growth in the next few months. However, according to Nomura, tailwinds include festive demand, backloaded fiscal activism and a further economic reopening. Meanwhile, Indias manufacturing activity gained momentum in October, hitting an eight-month high, data released by the IHS Markit showed PMI rose to 55.9 in October expanding for the fourth consecutive month. Also, goods and services tax (GST) collection remained above ₹1 lakh crore for the fourth month in a row at over ₹1.30 lakh crore in October. This is the second highest collection of GST since its implementation on July 1, 2017. Download.

economy 2021-11-02 Livemint